Fatal Future? Book Notes
Chapter by Chapter Notes
Hello Readers, outside of this steadily growing Substack I am also on YouTube and other video platforms providing cultural and geopolitical commentary and analysis. About a month ago I reviewed the 2004 book, Fatal future?: Transnational Terrorism and the New Global Disorder written by Professor Richard M. Pearlstein. It was certainly an interesting text, but I wanted my readers to have my notes on the text as well in case videos or livestreams aren’t your thing. This will be an informal review, although it will go over the whole book - consider this your cliff notes to a forgotten work on terrorism.
This book, now nearly two decades old is like a time capsule of Post-9/11 literature and the concerns of what the future might hold. It is nearly 200 pages, although 99 of those pages are the actual text of the book itself, the rest being endnotes or introductory remarks.
So here are the notes below.
Fatal future?: Transnational Terrorism and the New Global Disorder
Terrorism has somewhat fallen out of much security and international relations discourse, but rather has given way to its own discipline. Long gone are the days of the Weather Underground or the Hijackings and Bombings of the 1970s, of course now the focus is on the other side of the political spectrum as much terror talk has become solely domestic. The question of radicals, anarchists, but most importantly above all else, political enemies tends to be the case nowadays, with little media attention given to outside terror actors, perhaps because it is in my opinion it would raise the ugly question of how much terrorism is directly or indirectly funded by the USG.
However, in regards to this book and many like it in the years immediately after September 11th, 2001 especially as the War in Iraq took off in 2003, we have nothing like this book on the subject of terrorism today. Much of what constitutes “global disorder” has been reframed solely on the idea of what The Economist Magazine once called “in or out” with regards to being part of the international community or a Little England style nationalism. This doesn’t mean transnational terror or terror groups like Boko Haram or the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) have gone away.
The Book’s Preface
It was interesting to read that Pearlstein was around or near the OKC Bombing (which has its own dubious narratives worth investigating) but also that the inspiration to write the book came from a visit Ground Zero in 2002, with a vivid description of one of the most diverse cities on earth all reconciling with the change to the skyline and their home. He makes a point about how “Home” has been lost and violated - a feeling that has certainly taken on a new meaning depending on who you ask.
He makes it clear in his book that he wishes to outline the types and evolution of terrorism, from domestic to international to transnational.
“Intentionally spills over the Borders of Nation States.”
Although in researching and prepping for the lecture (and now book notes) I was somewhat surprised that the term “State Sponsors of Terrorism” is not a post 9/11 turn of phrase but rather can trace its roots in the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, which was used heavily for more executive powers from then President George W. Bush’s Executive Order 13224 on financial monitoring and disrupting monetary networks that support terrorism. You may find that bit as a no-brainer, but as someone who was born in 1995, there are things that you just associate with your formative years.
There are seven chapters in this book, which means this review will be a breeze as we only have 99 pages to go through in terms of text. These chapters are broken down on the following topics, notes my own.
Defining Terrorism
The Old Order - Now Transnational Terrorist Organizations (TTOs)
Evolution of Terror to TTOs
Ethnonationalist Terror
“Holy Rage” - Religion and Ideology
The “You” Factor - How this applies to You
Judging the Post 9/11 Response
We’ll cover each chapter in full.
Chapter 1 - Defining Terrorism
Pearlstein tries to offer the best technical definition he can, and is focusing on the impact of what is trying to be extracted from terrorism. In order to avoid panic and emotional responses to terror, one must understand what it is, to define it and combat it.
He offers a terrorism definition in the domestic sense, being a specific form of civil rebellion against symbolic victims or objects, not necessarily the State itself directly. Pearlstein is quick to make a distinction, on indirect and direct violence. Direct violence being clearly a Perpetrator/Victim Dynamic, whereas Terrorism is more indirect with a Messenger, or another person to help create more space from the actors who committed the violent act to those who are the victims.
Now in 2004, he was arguing that there were three generations of Terrorism.
Intranational- Inside and operating within a nation-state.
International- Primarily funded through state actors but can operate abroad
Transnational, the TTOs - Don’t need state support, can financially support themselves independently and maintain operations not in just one nation state.
At the time of writing this I am not so sure we are at any kind of fourth generation, although in an age of more cryptographic communication maybe, although if the issue of ISIS and other organizations are demonstrative of anything we’re in a hybrid of 2nd and 3rd generation. Perhaps that is the fourth, but that just sounds like state sponsored terrorism with extra steps.
He alludes to a later chapter, but notes that “EthnoTerrorism” is something that is the most enduring, whether that be the FALN in Puerto Rico, The PLO, Corsican Liberation Front and countless others. Very much a work of its time, but we’ll get on the ethnic bits in a later chapter. He doesn’t give to much attention in this book to domestic Right-Wing Extremism although that’s certainly all the rage now.
This Chapter and Chapter 7 are the shortest chapters in the book.
Chap. 2: Rise of the New Global Disorder
This was an interesting chapter simply because of what kind of world order that he uses to describe the current age in the wake of September 11th, 2001. He offers a history of the world order of the latter half of the 20th Century.
Bipolar → Tripolar → Unipolar is the order he describes, specifically with the nonalignment movement making up the tripolar world from 1972 to 1992.
In a claim I find to be the most aged in its writing is that as of 2004, “Polarity Is Obsolete” in the age of Transnational Terrorism. Pearlstein then describes the world order of the age that we apparently entered as the “Polyplex World System” on Page 12 of the text. (Note: I am transcribing my handwritten notes, so my apologies if you’re looking for exact citation.) Wherein one global power doesn’t have nearly as much sway as it once did in the face of transnational corporations, transnational terrorism, and the rising power of formal rivals like China and Russia that the world will be increasingly complex. Pearlstein argues that institutions like Exxon Mobil, BP, CitiBank and others are now vital players in today’s world order, although I feel as if many of them are still at the behest of major powers and their actions on the world stage.
Although he doesn’t take into account criminal activity, such as drug cartels, trafficking or piracy, I should take into consideration that the world order is much more complex or at least take the time to investigate further especially as talk of deglobalization continues.
This chapter concludes that going forward the world stage will be more complex because of the rise of TTOs.
Chapter 3: Transnational Terrorism
From globalization emerges a new form of terrorism.
Pearlstein Defines a Transnational Terror Organization with the following characteristics.
Self sufficient, privately supported
Pursues its own interests transnationally
Lack their own sovereign territory
He’s quick to point out that these kind of organizations don’t receive or seek out state sponsorship or aid in order to maintain their own agency. TTOs best function in weakened states, in where the existing government authority is losing legitimacy or is seen as flatly incompetent especially when there is intense internal ethnic or religious divisions inside the State. Because of this, Pearlstein argues the necessity for a renewed and collaborative focus on Terror, NGO and Government alike. This can all be found on page 19, and he argues that TTOs have shorter lifespans than traditional terrorist organizations, in part because they are usually small ad hoc or cell like entities.
This also means an increased risk of division and factionalism which can create more TTOs, or at least difficulties in intelligence gathering.
On Page 22 he states that there are 5 major factors that enable the growth of TTOs at the time of him writing this.
Religious issues that transcend nation state boundaries
Increasing permeability of nation state borders
New sources of funding and independent financial support
Availability of WMDs
Dramatic advances in communications technology
I will note that points one and two could be effectively mitigated by strong border controls but nevertheless here we are.
Chapter 4: Ethnoterrorism
Ah yes, let’s see how well this holds up.
In the timeliness of this chapter, Jihad vs. McWorld is cited prominently in the introduction of the chapter. I know it’s paywalled now, but Academic Agent has a paneled review of that text that’s well worth your time. Pearlstein defines ethnic and civic nationalism, borrowing from Michael Ignatieff.
Civic Nationalism being:
….maintains that the nation should be composed of all those- regardless of race, color, creed, gender, language, or ethnicity - who should subscribe to the nation’s political creed. This nationalism is called civic because it envisages the nation as a community of equal, rights-bearing citizens, united in patriotic attachment to a shared set of political values.
And Ethnic Nationalism being:
…that an individual’s deepest attachments are inherited, not chosen. It is the national community that defines the individual, not the individuals who define the national community. This psychology of belonging may have greater depth than civic nationalism’s, but the sociology that accompanies it is a good deal less realistic.
The interesting part was the conclusion that Pearlstein made (which to me was the obvious) on the weakness and artificiality of civic nationalism.
The rest of the chapter does take a look at the PKK, the Kurdish Worker’s Party and the IRA as historical case studies. The PKK section was the most interesting because unlike the Good Friday Accords there really hasn’t been an end to Turkey’s policy on the Kurds, let alone the US and Western allies being supportive of Kurdish fighters and groups in Iraq and Syria much to Turkey’s dismay in the past and today.
However, one thing in this chapter that Pearlstein did get right was that globalization would spark more ethnic identitarianism in the Western world, something which hasn’t fully been answered despite policies of “replacement migration.”
Chapter 5: Holy Rage
Onto the subject of religious extremism. The only thing I could think of when reading this chapter was The Myth of Religious Violence by Cavanaugh. It felt like Cavanaugh was writing in response to the kind of passages Pearlstein was writing. He discusses the differences between moderates and fundamentalists for example, which had a very Western, secular take that moderates simply believe separation of church and state and relatively decent relations with other faiths in terms of co-existence. This is very much framed within the timely realm of Islamic Extremism. It never really went away but the focus on it has certainly shifted since the GWOT began.
The chapter emphasizes the global impact of Faraj’s religious call to extremism with The Neglected Duty in 1986 . Abd Al-Salam Faraj was associated with the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981, part of the then terror group Al-Jihad.
This chapter I have the shortest amount of notes on, translations from The Neglected Duty and citations from Koran are found throughout, but it certainly felt like the chapter I was the most socialized with especially growing up as a military brat. Especially as the conversation in the chapter transitioned to Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda.
Chapter 6: Superterrorism
This is the longest chapter of the book, and focuses on how this affects you.
The chapter seems to be on the subject of “Superterrorism” wherein its emphasizing on examples of mass casualty events and how the potentiality of “quasi weapons of mass destruction” could be created or easily attained. This chapter is both realistic, but yet very much fear mongering in hindsight nearly twenty years later. However I have to appreciate the pages 69-70, as this reminded me about Waltz and Sagan debating about nuclear proliferation as he argues why terrorism could increase in the coming decades, and arguments against. A reflexive passage which I greatly appreciated.
The chapter does open up with the 1995 Subway attacks in Japan, and illustrative of how fast and deadly these attacks could be on ordinary civilian targets. This chapter, and all chapters before it, are very textbook-esque, with things like “In this chapter we will explore XYZ, and answer it with ABC".”
In the backdrop of this is is the premise that WMDs are easily accessible, especially in the backdrop of the development of them during the Cold War, that CRBN threats are the thing to be extra vigilant for, and that supplies from the Iran-Iraq war would be a place to go looking for materials for a mass casualty event.
The concern for the ordinary person is a group or a large organization that has the idea that Robert Jay Wilson wrote about, as the desire to “Destroy the World to Save the World” with a heavy emphasis on theological and ideological terrorism. It goes off from the 1995 attack in Japan and emphasizes the impact that biological terror could have, especially as we learned after the fall of the Soviet Union, that the 1972 Convention on Biological Weapons was being violated by the USSR.
More or less all forms of CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear) threats are addressed, but but the real take away from this is that state sponsored actors have probably had a much bigger impact than the TTO concern raised in this chapter and the entire text.
Chap. 7 The World After 9/11
The other very short chapter in the book, that tries to gauge the counter terrorist response in the US and the world. Pearlstein does address some of the fears about privacy, but argues that the initial response from the US and Western governments on financially disrupting TTO’s through sanctions and expanded powers has proven effective. Pearlstein is quick to note that the military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan may prove to be long and contentious.
Boy was he right about that.
So those are my notes on the book, I hope you can take something away from this text, it was fun to review and read especially as I’ve inherited a large quantity of books from a friend whose bookstore is closing down.
The stream is linked down below in case you want to review it, but I’ll see you next time.
https://www.youtube.com/live/ha4R96L1KUE?feature=share